By James Fedewa

The 2013 NFL Draft is right around the corner (less than 19 days). Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock and “who” will the Chiefs choose; “why” did they do that, and “they should’ve traded it” whispers and estimates fill the web. Everyone has their favorite picks/players and guesses for who should be the next prospect taken and for what team. Draft experts and analyst skew projections of team needs and scheme fits, but no one really knows what is going to happen on draft day. Evaluating the future is only a guessing probabilities. Unpredictability is the name of the game (as well as new team additions/future superstars) that’s what makes the NFL Draft so intriguing.

Here a version of predicting the future, with the same odd as winning the lottery: My 2013 mock draft. This is my 6^th so I’m not going to leave a “note” with the reason why I chose this player with that team. Lets just say it’s an educated guess, followed by TEAM NEED, then Best Player Available.

*Note: I’m a San Diego Chargers fan, so San Diego selects: #1.) Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma #2.) Kawann Short, DT Purdue. #3.) Corey Lemonier, DE/OLB, Auburn

By JAMES FEDEWA

With the NFL Draft approaching in less than three weeks, draft enthusiasts, draftniks and super-fans are guessing what their team necessities are and who they should draft. The unpredictability of the NFL Draft is probably the most intriguing aspect of the annual draft craze, with new team additions and improvements that keep us all guessing “who’s going where and in what round.” Draft Value adds to the craze too, as potential first round picks, which slid and were drafted in the second, or third…

Some NFL Teams draft out of “need” and some draft “Best Player Available” (BPA), or a little of both. Based on the San Diego Chargers current roster and salary cap situation & limitations, Chargers fans can pretty much guess correctly what San Diego will do with their first pick (#11 overall). They will draft out of NEED as San Diego has a glaring need at left tackle, which is the most likely choice with their first pick. Three left tackles are considered the top tier bunch: Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) and Lane Johnson (Oklahoma). San Diego needs one of them and one should be available with San Diego’s #11 overall pick.

However, the NFL Draft is extremely unpredictable. If all three top rated left tackle prospects are all drafted before San Diego’s pick, what position will San Diego draft in the first round? It is rare to see 3 offensive linemen to go in the top ten, but it could happen.

Offensive Guards Chance Warmack (Alabama) and Johnathan Cooper (North Carolina) are just as highly rated as the top three left tackle prospects, but guard is not an immediate need for San Diego, like left tackle is, nor is a guard a sexy pick at #11. First round guards are rare, as you can find quality guards in later rounds of the draft, but Warmack and Cooper are very special and are two of the highest rated guards coming out of college, ever. Any first rounder drafted to San Diego’s offensive line would help San Diego immensely, so any o-lineman should be the choice.

Again, the NFL Draft is very unpredictable. Many scenarios can happen with the first ten picks, before San Diego’s #11 selection. If no players that San Diego want with their pick, then the Chargers can trade-down. They could also trade up to secure one of the left tackles, but that could cost San Diego additional draft picks to give away in trade. San Diego can also stand pat and take what they can get, regardless of the position (which what they will probably do).

But since we are talking about unpredictability here, why don’t we talk about “TRADE DOWN” scenarios? If GM Tom Telesco wants to get more draft picks, or doesn’t like what he sees at #11, who could San Diego trade down with?

The first part of the 2013 NFL Draft is controlled by four teams, since these teams have multiple/extra draft picks in the first two rounds: 49ers, Vikings, Bengals & Rams

The San Francisco 49ers have 15 draft picks (including one in the first round and two in the second round). They have the most control of this draft, as they do not need 15 rookies on their 2013 team. So they have the ability to trade up (or down) and target the players they want. There’s no hiding that they do like Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia, but the 49ers first round pick is at #31 and Austin is projected to go well before that. Based on the “Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Trade Value Chart” (a point value system, based on each NFL draft pick position), most trades should equal close to each other’s total. For example, if San Diego picks at #11 that draft pick is worth 1250 points, and whichever team would like to trade that draft pick, for their draft picks, the additional draft picks should sum should total 1250. So, if San Francisco wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick (#11 overall), it would cost San Francisco three draft picks (#31, #34 & #96, based on the total points each draft pick is valued).

The Minnesota Vikings have a need at wide receiver too, and have also been enamored with Tevon Austin to replace recently traded Percy Harvin. If Minnesota wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick (#11), it would cost them: #23, #25 & #101.

The Cincinnati Bengals also have a need for a playmaker wide receiver (as well as a right tackle). If Cincinnati wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick, and swap second round draft picks (SD’s #11 & 45), it would cost them: #21, #37 & #54 (-10 points in SD’s favor). That’s two picks for three picks…

The St. Louis Ram also have a need for a wide receiver, and have been linked to Tevon Austin as well. If St. Louis wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft picks (#11), it would cost them: #16, #80 & #112 (-10 in SD’s favor)

Acquiring additional draft picks in the NFL Draft is an art form. Good trade (downs) look like magic (on paper). The St. Louis Rams did a great job trading down in last years draft (same with the Chargers in 2004). But annual draft results cannot be measured for several years.

General Managers know their teams holes and can often target the guys they want, a round earlier than projected in drafts. Trading down can backfire, and trading out of the top half of the first round has even more odds against you (see Chargers 2003 draft trade down – S.Davis/T.Keil vs. T.Polamalu = moving down 14 spots for two draft picks). As much as any GM would like to move back 10 spots, and get an additional draft pick (within the top 64) picks seems great, but the odds are not in their favor. The number #11 draft pick is a prize and should not be gambled with. But big bets have big rewards…

If San Diego cannot land a top tier first round offensive lineman like (Joeckel, Fisher, Lane Johnson, Warmack or Cooper) then San Diego can go a numerous amount of directions. And we won’t find out until Thursday night, April 25^th.

By JAMES FEDEWA www.nationalfanatic.wordpress.com

4/1/13

Aprils Fools turned out to be no fooling around today, with three new quarterbacks going to three new NFL teams. Now that Buffalo signed Kevin Kolb, Arizona about ready to trade for Carson Palmer, and Oakland trading for Matt Flynn, some quarterback hungry teams aren’t that hungry any longer. These three transactions can very much alter this month’s NFL Draft, especially for the San Diego Chargers and their current draft needs.

San Diego cut ties with left tackle Jared Gaither last week opening a glaring hole at left tackle (which is their most important draft need). The top three offensive tackles (Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher & Lane Johnson) could be taken before San Diego picks at number eleven. San Diego can elect drafting other needs in the first round (like outside linebacker, nose tackle, guard or even receiver ) but if Philadelphia, Arizona or Buffalo elect to pass on top rated quarterback Geno Smith, San Diego might be forced to draft a new quarterback.

Geno Smith has been projected the #1 overall draft pick, as well as the highest rated quarterback in the 2013 draft. Smith was first projected to go #1 to Kansas City, but the Chiefs traded for new starter Alex Smith. The Cardinals, Raiders and Bills all have had links to quarterback Geno Smith within the top ten picks, but all have NEW quarterbacks as of TODAY. Those same teams that all pick before San Diego could all draft the big three left tackles, and are now more likely to be gone by San Diego’s #11 pick.

New Chargers GM Tom Telesco has already said that San Diego will draft the best player available, regardless of position. If Geno Smith is available at #11, Telesco may have to draft him. But that would seem alright, right? New GM’s on new teams want to draft their guys. Plus San Diego has a new head coach, and head coaches are the same way as GM’s, they all want their choice in players. Phillip Rivers was old GM AJ Smith’s guy. The last two years, Rivers has had too many turnovers and very inconsistent play, but most of that blame has been swept towards the porous offensive line. Therefore Rivers is still tradable and may be at his final peak as tradable commodity.

Rivers could get traded immediately (probably demand two 1^st round draft picks). One team that has been willing to trade high draft picks for veteran players (and has the salary cap room to take on Rivers contract) is Tampa Bay (not to mention all the Bucs & Darrelle Revis trade rumors). Bucs head coach, Greg Schiano, has no “ties” with their current quarterback, as Josh Freeman was he drafted by the previous coaching staff. No loyalty there. And who has better chemistry with Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson than Phillip Rivers? (other than Antonio Gates)

Or Geno Smith could be tutored by Rivers for a season (and watch & learn from the bench). This may be additional motivation for Rivers to perform better (kind of like what happened with Drew Brees with Rivers on the bench). But without a new 1^st round left tackle, Rivers will probably perform badly as he need the protection he can get.

Or Rivers could be traded midseason, kind of like the Bengals and Carson Palmer. WHO KNOWS…

Of course, I’m only guessing if left tackles Joeckel, Fisher or L.Johnson are NOT available when San Diego picks the draft. And usually good quarterbacks like (Geno Smith and Matt Barkley) get drafted quickly. Quarterbacks always go ahead from their projections as this is a quarterback driven league.

…but what if Geno Smith is available for the NEW San Diego Chargers to draft?

I was a little shocked when I saw that Gaither was released yesterday. He really let us all down, as he only participated in 1 day of training camp and a hand full of games. I’ll admit, I was rooting for him in 2011 and I was in FULL SUPPORT of GM AJ Smith when San Diego signed him to his current anchor (contract) that was just terminated. I’ll tell you one thing though, I hope SD doesn’t sign or draft a guy with Stenosis (Marcus McNeil), or important players at key positions that came from the supplemental draft (Jared Gaither – Nose tackle is not a key position, al la Jamal Williams, suplimental draft). McNeil and Gaither are both YOUNG guys too, but both have put San Diego in a pinch with sudden retirements and gimmick back injuries.

So it really looks like the Chargers are in desperate need of a left tackle again, and SD will hunt for that guy in this next draft.

NFL Drafts are so mixed, unpredictable and odd… NO one can guess them correctly, but that’s why I love NFL MOCK DRAFTS. I have been MOCKING DRAFTS since 2005, so San Diego Mock Drafts are more than a hobby for me.

Yes, I have Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan in the 1^st round going to San Diego. Fisher would be a great addition (as would Lane Johnson), as he’s much needed on this San Diego o-line. But Manti Ta’o, ILB, Notre Dame in the 2^nd round… EEEKKKK!!!! I see him falling to San Diego but the value he would bring with the 45^th pick is too good to pass up. Manti Te’o is is projected at a 1^st round talent (with some 2^nd round catfishing issues). The Chargers defense is full of good young athletes and playmakers, and I think if Te’o is available at #45, GM Tom Telesco can’t pass on him and he can motive his teammates as well. He could split time with Jonas Mouton at ILB, playing next to Donald Butler.

I’d prefer a pass rusher in the 2^nd round (like OLB/DE’s Sam Montgomery or Tank Carradine) or a nose tackle like Kawann Short, but those guys will probably be gone at the 45^th pick. If one of those three are there, then pass on Ta’o.

3/12/13 – by James Fedewa

After the first day of the NFL New Year, several veteran players have been cut/released from their former (respectable) team. There has been some quality players release today. Veterans that have already won big contracts, that might not exactly be in their prime, like:

Inside linebacker, Kevin Burnett

Burnett had a great season in San Diego in 2008 and 2009. He could/should be welcomed back with open arms, even at a discount, but he was a product of AJ Smith, Norv Turner and Ron Rivera, and those fellas are gone. Former position coach John Pagano is still there. Melvin Ingram, Jarrett Johnson, Donald Butler, Larry English and Jonas Mouton don’t exactly intimidate or strike FEAR in anyone’s depths, or even sound good on linebacker paper. Suppose Manti Te’o or Jarvis Jones or James Harrison might sound better (on paper)…

Cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha / Antoine Winfield / Chris Gamble

Two years ago, Nnamdi was the premier free agent pickup. San Diego fans drooled about acquiring him in 2010, but couldn’t afford him. His best seasons were in the AFC West and San Diego needs a savvy veteran starter. You’d think a 2 year $8MM contract might satisfy his high demands, but he’ll probably get triple that amount from some other CB needy bank.

Antoine Winfield might be the cheap vet San Diego needs. Winfield is past his prime at 36, but can help incumbent starters Shareece Wright and Marcus Gilchrist on the basics and fundamentals of being well rounded CB. Winfield is a tackling purest, and one of the better nickel cornerbacks on the market. Winfield is similar in size as Wright and Gilchrist, about 5′ – 9″-ish/ 180 to 190 lbs. and San Diego could really use some length in the secondary. A taller & younger cornerback should be targeted early in the draft.

Chris Gamble is a smart, big, physical veteran starter. At 30 years old, he still has several serviceable years, but will probably get more money than what San Diego can afford (but less than Asomugha). Gamble has threatened retirement though.

Injuries have plagued the Chargers for the last three years, and depth is most important at this point of the NEW San Diego Chargers.

Day ONE Additions:

San Diego picked up a backup mammoth offensive lineman, swing tackle King Dunlap (for much needed depth). They also signed a backup project running back that was very popular at the University of Texas (before he was injured in 2011) named “Fozzy.” Chargers fans should not have expected new GM Tom Telesco to sign any BIG name free agents on day one, and should have expected guard Luis Vazquez to leave for a bigger payday. Telesco will focus on getting San Diego YOUNGER and build through the draft, but should expect value and depth in free agency

The San Francisco 49ers traded quarterback Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs for draft picks (and cleared up salary cap space). This move put the 49ers in a good spot to trade for New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis (who is currently being shopped by the Jets). What will the New York Jets seek for one of the best players in the NFL?

Addition by subtraction, addition by addition, or addition by multiplication…

Revis is a very HOT commodity and has been talked about by all NFL teams (and fans) since the Jets claimed they are interested in trading Revis. Current New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has had two terrible turnover-filled seasons and may not be invited back to the team. Sanchez’s current contract/salary cap hit is nearly $13 million, a large burden for New York since he signed a large contract extension in 2012. Sanchez’s salary is very detrimental to the team for a quarterback that has led the league in turnovers for two straight years.

Can Revis and Sanchez be packaged together for a trade? Or can the Jets find an additional team to take Sanchez in a three way deal (like an NBA style trade). A trade for Revis can easily demand two 2^nd round draft picks, or one 1^st round draft pick, but including Mark Sanchez in the Revis deal; the Jets could take less just to get Sanchez salary cap figure off their books.

Revis was injured very early in 2012 and missed most of the 2012 season and he is only under contract this season, so if a trade is proposed, most likely a contract extension must be in place from the new team trading for Revis.

Time for the New York Jets to get creative…

Three top tier offensive linemen are coming from Alabama in this years draft. San Diego could be targeting all three of them (OG Chance Warmack, RT DJ Fluker, and C Barrett Jones).

With Joeckel and Fisher probably off the board when the Chargers pick @ #11, SD could trade down in the 1st round and stockpile picks (and still move back up).

Warmack is a mid to late 1st round prospect while Fluker is a late 1st round prospect.  Barrett Jones has a 3rd round grade, so with some creative trading and swapping, can Tom Telesoc and Mike McCoy grab Warmack, Fluker and Jones 1, 2 and 3?