Draft Wrap, 2013 San Diego Chargers
4/30/2013 by James Fedewa
New Chargers management and coaching staff faced their largest paramount task with a successful draft. Taking what was offered (within a limited price) and without panic, GM Tom Telesco and HC Mike McCoy played their cards that were dealt, bet when had to (folded too), and walked as away wining six new team members with very good ranking. A first round left tackle was the primary goal, but any rookie left tackle worth starting day one was gone by the 4th overall pick (and San Diego was selecting at #11).
DJ Fluker, right tackle (Alabama): Fluker will have a lot to learn as a rookie, but he comes from the best colligate football program in America, brings success with him, championships and an eagerness to work. Within one year, you’ll forget about him (in a good way). Fluker will command the right side of the line immediately and for a long time, Charger fans will not have to worry about right tackle for a long while.
Manti Te’o, inside linebacker (Notre Dame): Regular-Season college football dynamo / Leader of the best college (3-4) defense in America / earned team captain & leader (Eagle Scout) / 7 interceptions and a second place vote for the Heisman Trophy (as a defensive player), Te’o brings an amazing pedigree with accolades to San Diego. Aside Te’o’s Catsfishing echo, he couldn’t find a more suitable place to get drafted to. The San Diego defense is looking for new playmakers, leaders, identity and strength (and it cost Telesco a 4th round pick to do it). Great pick and one word: Playmaker
Keenan Allen, wide receiver (Cal): Physical, Fluid, football player, catches everything, good size, deceiving speed and first-down machine. With an accurate quarterback, Allen will even shine brighter. Rivers likes big receivers with wide catching areas, and Allen can be exactly that, but actually with first round graded talent. If Rivers can make Denario Alexander look great, Allen should be a vast upgrade (as long as he can stay healthy for full rookie season and pro education). He can be a #1 receiver.
Brian Williams, cornerback (Cal): Technician-Athlete, Fast, Apt, Quick, ball-hawk, very good with his hands and a hitter/tackler. William’s stood out at the combine with impressive mearsuables and testing (40 time 4.34 / vert. jump: 40.5), but he’s not exactly tall at 5′ 8″ (which made him slide in a draft full of talented cornerbacks). He’ll compete immediately for playing time at nickel corner and special teams and he’ll match up very well with new Broncos WR Wes Welker & KC’s Dexter McCluster. Think of an underrated Honeybadger. Future fan favorite.
Tourek Williams, outside linebacker (Florida International) 260 lbs. Pass Rusher that can provide depth to a team that lost two solid OLB’s. Solid 6th round draft pick.
Brad Sorensen, quarterback (Southern Utah): Camp arm, but does have a shot to make the team. Scouts believe he has the type of ability that can translate well at the pro-level. Big 6′ 5″ 230 lbs. pocket passer.
Left Tackle: NO
Backup Defensive Line Depth: NO
San Diego drafted well and I give them a B+/A-. The Chargers received great value with a few of their picks and still need to fill some holes in free agency. Left tackle still remains a large concern, but King Dunlap paired with DJ Fluker feels like an upgrade over Mike Harris/Jarrod Gaither and Jeremy Clary.
There still is plenty of time to sift through the waiver wire and scoop up some other teams salary cap problems (at a discount of course). Expect a couple of left tackles to be available after final team cuts. Until then Telesco will be contacting several left tackles still available. Free Agent Demetress Bell has ties with San Diego’ offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris. Philadelphia’s LT Jason Peters could be replaced by newly drafted LT Lane Johnson (Jason Peters also has ties with D’Alessandris). Do not rule out DJ Fluker to try some left tackle as well, as D’Alessandris has a new project with more talent than Peters (undrafted) and Bell (7th round). D’Alessandris can fine the talent on this team and it might be there already in King Dunlap (7th round).
San Diego Chargers, D.J. Fluker, Right Tackle
The San Diego Chargers select right-tackle, Alabama: D.J. Fluker. It’s not a finesse pick, nor a pretty pick, but a very powerful and thick pick. Fluker is one mean-moose and a scary street-fighter (type). General Manager, Tom Telesco did not have the opportunity to draft the one top three left offensive tackles, or top two offensive guards (as they were already gone), but they did get the top right tackle prospect, with the ability to play three total positions (LG, RG, RT).
Fluker is one of the most intimidating offensive linemen in this draft and his physical traits, tangibles and tools have him upgrading the Chargers offensive line immediately. Six foot, 8 inches tall, 340 pound, with longest arm length in the draft at 36 3/4″ (2 ½” longer than Luke Joeckel & 2 ¼ ” longer than Fisher), he is a beast. Within this game (of fractions of a second), 2″ could mean the instant security for any quarterback. Massive tackles like Fluker do not usually come with the effort and explosiveness that is natural for him. Fluker is an energy player, which is rare for guys his size and he does not take plays off. Every play his total effort. Constantly moving, diving, digging, scratching, clawing and clamping is his specialty. And with adapting within the Chargers new hybrid-power/zone blocking-scheme, the Chargers are very excited about the selection.
Fluker has been a starting power blocker for the University of Alabama for the last 3 years, road-grading easy-streets for the likes of running backs Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Eddy Lacey. Designed to destroy, Fluker will be a quarterbacks front side protector and running backs best friend (as Ryan Matthews is probably the most excited about the addition).
Some scouts can project Fluker as a left tackle project based on measurable alone, or he can become an all-pro right tackle, either way, he is an upgrade for the Chargers offensive line and we will leave it to the Chargers coaching staff to figure out his best position. With the way the dice rolled in this draft, it was an exemplary and “no-brainer” selecting D.J. Fluker for Tom Telesco. Grade: B+ (based on team need)
DAY TWO (Friday, rounds 2 and 3):
Expect San Diego to select defensive, either: Kawaan Short, DT, Purdue or Sam Montgomery, OLB/DE, LSU in the second round.
Third Round: Brandon William, NT Missouri Southern State or Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff or Brian Schwenke, C/OG, Cal
(*More and more quality NFL draft prospects are falling in this draft. If additional first round graded draftees continue to fall, expect Telesco to snatch up the best player available vs. team need)
NOTE: With the addition of DJ Fluker, San Diego could cut current right tackle starter Jeremy Clary and save approximately $2.4 million in salary cap savings (and potentially find a new veteran left tackle with that money).
2013 NFL Mock Draft, Full 3 Rounder (genuine) 8.0
4/23/13
By James Fedewa
This is the real deal mock draft, so make sure you print this out and prepare to watch your NFL Draft with a pen, pencil, highlighter and printout lists. You won’t find a better mock draft that this one here. After 8 versions, based on pure player talent/projections and team need, this will probably be a better version than you would see on larger networks like CBS, ESPN and NFL.
This draft should be filled with several draft-day trades, and one trade can bust a mock draft (or one odd-ball team selection. Look for Here’s my latest NFL Mock Draft (with no projected trades):
|
2013 NFL Mock Draft |
Scenario 6 (4/22/13) |
||
|
No. |
Team |
||
|
1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
=== |
Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M |
|
2 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
=== |
Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon |
|
3 |
Oakland Raiders |
=== |
Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida |
|
4 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
=== |
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia |
|
5 |
Detroit Lions |
=== |
Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama |
|
6 |
Cleveland Browns |
=== |
Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU |
|
7 |
Arizona Cardinals |
=== |
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan |
|
8 |
Buffalo Bills |
=== |
Matt Barkley, QB, USC |
|
9 |
New York Jets |
=== |
EJ Manual, QB Florida State |
|
10 |
Tennessee Titans |
=== |
Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah |
|
11 |
San Diego Chargers |
=== |
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma |
|
12 |
Miami Dolphins |
=== |
D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama |
|
13 |
New York Jets (from Buccaneers) |
=== |
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU |
|
14 |
Carolina Panthers |
=== |
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee |
|
15 |
New Orleans Saints |
=== |
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston |
|
16 |
St. Louis Rams |
=== |
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia |
|
17 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
=== |
Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia |
|
18 |
Dallas Cowboys |
=== |
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama |
|
19 |
New York Giants |
=== |
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri |
|
20 |
Chicago Bears |
=== |
Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia |
|
21 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
=== |
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas |
|
22 |
St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) |
=== |
Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina |
|
23 |
Minnesota Vikings |
=== |
Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida Sate |
|
24 |
Indianapolis Colts |
=== |
Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State |
|
25 |
Minnesota Vikings (from Seahawks) |
=== |
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina |
|
26 |
Green Bay Packers |
=== |
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA |
|
27 |
Houston Texans |
=== |
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson |
|
28 |
Denver Broncos |
=== |
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington |
|
29 |
New England Patriots |
=== |
Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State |
|
30 |
Atlanta Falcons |
=== |
Cornellius Carradine, DE/OLB, Florida State |
|
31 |
San Francisco 49ers |
=== |
Eric Reid, FS, LSU |
|
32 |
Baltimore Ravens |
=== |
Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State |
|
2nd Round |
|
||
|
Pick (overall) |
Team |
|
|
|
1 (33) |
Jaguars |
=== |
Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse |
|
2 (34) |
San Francisco 49ers (from Chiefs) |
=== |
Kawann Short, DT, Purdue |
|
3 (35) |
Eagles |
=== |
Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama |
|
4 (36) |
Lions |
=== |
Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse |
|
5 (37) |
Bengals (from Raiders) |
=== |
Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame |
|
6 (38) |
Cardinals |
=== |
Mike Glennon, QB, NC State |
|
7 |
Browns |
=== |
(exercised pick in Supplemental Draft) |
|
8 (39) |
Jets |
=== |
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut |
|
9 (40) |
Titans |
=== |
Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M |
|
10 (41) |
Bills |
=== |
Keenan Allen, WR, CAL |
|
11 (42) |
Dolphins |
=== |
David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State |
|
12 (43) |
Buccaneers |
=== |
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame |
|
13 (44) |
Panthers |
=== |
Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International |
|
14 |
Saints |
=== |
(forfeited) |
|
15 (45) |
Chargers |
=== |
Sam Montgomery, OLB/DE, LSU |
|
16 (46) |
Rams |
=== |
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama |
|
17 (47) |
Cowboys |
=== |
Matt Elam, SS, Florida |
|
18 (48) |
Steelers |
=== |
Justin Hunter, WR, Tenn |
|
19 (49) |
Giants |
=== |
Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State |
|
20 (50) |
Bears |
=== |
Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU |
|
21 (51) |
Redskins |
=== |
Margus Hunt, DE, SMU |
|
22 (52) |
Vikings |
=== |
Robert Woods, WR, USC |
|
23 (53) |
Bengals |
=== |
Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin |
|
24 (54) |
Dolphins (from Colts) |
=== |
Alex Okafor, 34OLB/DE, Texas |
|
25 (55) |
Packers |
=== |
Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State |
|
26 (56) |
Seahawks |
=== |
Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers |
|
27 (57) |
Texans |
=== |
John Jenkins, DT, Georgia |
|
28 (58) |
Broncos |
=== |
Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M |
|
29 (59) |
Patriots |
=== |
Corey Lemonier, DE/OLB, Auburn |
|
30 (60) |
Falcons |
=== |
Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State |
|
31 (61) |
49ers |
=== |
Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford |
|
32 (62) |
Ravens |
=== |
Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin |
|
3rd Round |
|||
|
Pick (overall) |
Team |
||
|
1 (63) |
Chiefs |
=== |
Barret Jones, OG/C, Alabama |
|
2 (64) |
Jaguars |
=== |
B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary |
|
3 (65) |
Lions |
=== |
Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss |
|
4 (66) |
Raiders |
=== |
Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State |
|
5 (67) |
Eagles |
=== |
Kyle Long, OT, Oregon |
|
6 (68) |
Browns |
=== |
Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers |
|
7 (69) |
Cardinals |
=== |
Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M |
|
8 (70) |
Titans |
=== |
Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky |
|
9 (71) |
Bills |
=== |
Brian Schwenke, C/OG, Cal |
|
10 (72) |
Jets |
=== |
Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech |
|
11 (73) |
Buccaneers |
=== |
Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State |
|
12 (74) |
49ers |
=== |
Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana |
|
13 (75) |
Saints |
=== |
Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee |
|
14 (76) |
Chargers |
=== |
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|
15 (77) |
Dolphins |
=== |
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State |
|
16 (78) |
Rams |
=== |
Philip Thomas, S, Fresno State |
|
17 (79) |
Steelers |
=== |
Shamarko Thomas, SS, Syracuse |
|
18(80) |
Cowboys |
=== |
Sio Moore, OLB, Connecticut |
|
19(81) |
Giants |
=== |
Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA |
|
20(82) |
Dolphins (from Chicago) |
=== |
Bennie Logan, DT, LSU |
|
21(83) |
Vikings |
=== |
D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina |
|
22(84) |
Bengals |
=== |
Alvin Bailey, OT/G, Arkansas |
|
23(85) |
Redskins |
=== |
Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State |
|
24(86) |
Colts |
=== |
Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor |
|
25(87) |
Seattle |
=== |
Kiko Alonso, ILB, Oregon |
|
22(88) |
Packers |
=== |
Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina |
|
27(89) |
Texans |
=== |
David Bakhtiari, OT/G, Colorado |
|
28(90) |
Broncos |
=== |
Chris Faulk, OT, LSU |
|
29(91) |
Patriots |
=== |
Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia |
|
30(92) |
Falcons |
=== |
Brennan Williams, OT, North Carolina |
|
31(93) |
49ers |
=== |
David Quessenberry, G/OT, San Jose State |
|
32(94) |
Ravens |
=== |
Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU |
|
33(95) |
Texans (Comp) |
=== |
Malliciah Goodman, DE, Clemson |
|
34(96) |
Chiefs (Comp) |
=== |
Brandon William, NT Missouri Southern State |
|
35(97) |
Titans (Comp) |
=== |
Bacarri Rambo, S, Georgia |
San Diego Chargers Select:
#11 Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma – With the media OVER-HYPE of some offensive linemen this year, reality sets in, and three quarterbacks are selected in the top ten. Although I have Arizona selecting left tackle Eric Fisher in this mock draft, I do believe the Cardinals pass on an offensive linemen for a premier pass rushing prospect. Arizona will draft a quarterback with their second round pick, and if they pass on pass on a pass rusher in the 1st and 2nd round, there will be none in the third round and pass rusher is the most glaring need. San Diego will have their choice as several O-Line prospects, including Eric Fisher.
#45 Sam Montgomery, OLB/DE, LSU – A very lucky selection for San Diego, although maybe a slight luxury pick in the 2nd round (since the Chargers are so thin on the defensive line). San Diego needs depth at OLB and Montgomery can step in at (situational) nickel/dime pass rusher. Montgomery is a very good pass rusher, but he did say some things at the combine (about taking plays off at LSU), so some teams question his motor. Sometimes being brutally honesty can cost you being selected in the first round.
#76 Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff – Armstead is loaded with talent but is extremely raw and needs time to marinate in the NFL. Some suggest Armstead will be selected early in the second round, but I don’t think he’s ready to start in 2013 (and the 2nd round is full of great starting material players that will go ahead of him). Armstead will need at least a year of NFL coaching and he came to the right place in San Diego (with new o-line coach Joe D’alessandris). With him sliding to the 3rd round, SD is shocked that he’s there and are going to have to push defensive line back till the 4th or 5th round. I’m not 100% sure if Armstead is a pro-bowl left tackle, but he could be a premier guard.
(4th round: NT / 5th round: DE / 6th round: SS / 7th round: CB)
–
The NFL Draft is like no other event in professional sports and gets more notoriety than some actual games. Not everyone can be an NFL player, but most football fans would love to run a franchise. So, in comes the mock draft (a “personal selection” of how you’d pick your team).
…a family tradition (2011 – 2012)



Current Chargers Roster looks like a 4-3 Defense
By James Fedewa
The San Diego Chargers will consider changing to the 4-3 defense 2013 (from defensive coordinator John Pagano’s 3-4 base defense). Pagano does specialize in the 3-4 Defense, but is not limited to one base defense. Any base defensive front is 100% based on the player personnel and will be run more than 50% of the time. If you have a lot of linebackers and want your best players of the field, play 3-4. If you have more D-Linemen that are pass rushers, play the 4-3.
Labeling and ranking San Diego personnel is very subjective, but the best players, most productive (and most experience) should be playing the majority of defensive snaps. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but simple mathematics and experience (within current players) alter defensive formations once the regular season starts. Here’s a ranking of current Chargers Defensive Starters, in order of best player (considering nickel-back is a starting position):
- Eric Weddle – FS
- Corey Liuget – DE
- Donald Butler- ILB
- Derrick Cox – CB
- Kendal Reyes – DE
- Melvin Ingram – ROLB/RDE
- Jarret Johnson – LOLB
- Shareece Wright – CB
- Cam Thomas – NT
- Marcus Gilchrist – NB
- Brandon Taylor – SS
- Jonas Mouton – ILB
Top Backup Players:
- Darrell Stuckey – S
- Larry English – ROLB/RDE
- Johnny Patrick – CB
- Andrew Gachkar – ILB
- Bront Bird – ILB
- Jarius Wynn, DE
18 notable defensive players…
Corey Liuget and Kendal Reyes are probably the best 1-2 punch and strength of the Chargers defense. Both are capable of rushing the passer in dime and nickel formations, but in the Chargers base 3-4D, they focus on gap control, neutralizing blockers with limited pass rushing assignments. Both Luiget and Reyes can be better utilized rushing the passer vs. holding up offensive linemen enabling San Diego’s linebackers. Both could benefit in a sturdy rotation with NT Cam Thomas, who is a pretty good middle pass rusher too. Liuget and Reyes are the strengths of the Chargers defense, yet are more reactive (in plugging holes), than proactive (in getting the quarterback). They are both better suited as 4-3 defensive tackles.
Melvin Ingram is a 270 lbs. linebacker, capable of playing multiple positions in the Chargers front seven. His strengths are rushing the passer mixed with his size and quickness. He might be a good OLB, but he might be better at just focusing on pressuring the quarterback and being a 4-3 defensive end. Jarret Johnson has experience playing a hybrid DE in Baltimore and starts, only on 1st and 2nd Downs. Johnon is not a superstar, but a very good player and team leader.
Larry English was a DE in college and at 255 lbs. can lineup in multiple outside positions on the D-line (including wide-9 right DE). If English earns playing time and can stay healthly, this is his year. English was drafted based on his smarts and high speed pass-rush while in a hunched over “crouch”. English can run a 4.8 40 yard dash, without standing straight up. He has all the talent in the world, is very savvy (scored a 37 on the wonderlic`) and should have a break out year with S.Phillips and A.Barns gone (which means more playing time)…
4-3 inside linebackers are the only question marks (if San Diego does change to the 4-3). Butler, Mouton and Gachkar all have a lot of speed but 2 of the 3 lack NFL experience. Butler is a quality linebacker and expected to become a pro-bowler. He could probably become the Chargers best defensive player this season and is already a team leader…
Rating the Chargers defensive players: 6 (of 12) starters are better suited playing in the 4-3 defense (based on skill set, experience, height, weight and speed). San Diego will draft an inside linebacker this week in the draft, but will he be a 43OLB or a 34ILB?
Say what you will, but SD looks 4-3…
2013 Draft Could Force the Chargers into the 4-3 Defense
By James Fedewa
The NFL Draft is in less than a week and San Diego’s offensive Line is the obvious need. The Chargers should be able to draft a premier (and coveted) left tackle; despite of what most draft analysts say (Lane Johnson or Eric Fisher should be available at #11).
Round TWO and THREE are the trick for the Chargers Defense. San Diego needs another pass rusher (in the form of a Right Defensive End / Outside Linebacker), a pure run-stuffer Nose Tackle or a very good Cornerback prospect.
Nose Tackle is the core of the 3-4 Defense and currently occupied by one guy, Cam Thomas, who has only started two games in his three year career). Thomas has had good productivity in the times he has played and has earned this starting position. Since losing previous nose tackles in in Antonio Garay and Aubrayo Franklin, San Diego needs nose tackles to be a formidable 3-4 defense. So unless San Diego can draft a very good Nose Tackle, there is no loyalty to the 3-4 defense with San Diego’s current roster.
San Diego’s top Outside Linebackers are Melvin Ingram (270 lbs.), Jarret Johnson (260 lbs.) and Larry English (255 lbs.). All are very capable of being 4-3 defensive ends ONLY, based on college experience, height, weight and speed.
San Diego projected 2nd round draft projections could be:
- Cornellius “Tank” Carradine, DE, Florida State
- Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
- Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
(…all college 4-3 defensive ends)
Nose tackles are a bit limited in the 2013 Draft. There are several of Nose Tackles that could be available in the first round, but San Diego will be drafting a left tackle. With San Diego’s second round pick, in all likelihood, most top rated nose tackles will probably be gone by San Diego #45th selection. Brandon William, Missouri Southern State, and Montori Hughes, Tennessee-Martin, could be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round, but both are projects coming out of a smaller school and neither warranting the Chargers to keep the base 3-4 Defense.
In round two, there could be limited Outside Linebackers, no Nose Tackles, but several 4-3 Defensive Ends. Without the quality 3-4 nose tackles available in the 2013 draft, San Diego might be better equipped to change from the 3-4 to the 4-3 Defense with their current personnel and a current 4-3 drafted defensive end. Changing to the 4-3 would also require San Diego to draft additional linebackers, which seem to be more available in later round, but current 4-3 linebackers would be led by Donald Butler, followed by Jonas Mouton, Andrew Gachkar and Bront Bird.
In the second round, more cornerbacks could be selected than any other position, but San Diego has a promising young threesome in Cox, Wright and Gilchrist that could be very special for a long time.
There are more reasons, now, to change to the 4-3 defense than there is keeping the 3-4 defense (based on player personnel alone – NT, OLB vs. DE). Coach Pagano on the other hand may say something different…
NFL Draft: 3 Left Tackles / 7 Needy Teams
By James Fedewa
The NFL Draft is next week and the Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock. There are three top tier left tackles in 2013 NFL draft and all should be able to start day one: Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) and Lane Johnson (Oklahoma). Fans and analysts anticipate the Chiefs selecting left tackle Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), even though they currently have a very good left tackle Brandon Albert. There are seven teams that could draft a left tackle in the first round (Chiefs, Jaguars, Eagles, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers and Dolphins). Seven teams, three elite left tackle prospects…
So who’s going where?
Based on 1st round projections and objective estimations, here are some (subjective) percentages of positional team-needs for those 7 left tackle needy teams:
- Chiefs (#1 pick): Joeckel is the consensus prediction. (60% chance of drafting a LT / 25% Defensive Line / 15% Outside Linebacker)
- Jaguars (#2 pick): Currently have a quality left tackle in Eugene Monroe. He’ll be a free agent next season (and a franchise tag could be set for him in 2014, if necessary). Not projected to draft a left tackle, but could happen. (20% chance of drafting a LT / 50% pass rusher / 30% quarterback)
- Eagles (#4 pick): Currently have a very good left tackle (Jason Peters), but he’s returning from a major Achilles injury. At 31 years old, Peters is expected back healthy, but Philadelphia could draft a left tackle to get younger (or BPA). The Eagles are changing defensive schemes to a 3-4 base and need to draft a defensive players early to fit their new system (20% chance of drafting a LT / 20% quarterback / 20% defensive line / 20% pass rusher / 20% cornerback)
- Lions (#5 pick): Lost both of their tackles from retirement and free agency. Detroit did draft a first round tackle in the 2012 draft (Riley Rieff), but is he a right or left tackle? The Lions could draft another left tackle early, but have several holes to fill. They could draft a right tackle later in the draft for less. (30% chance of drafting a LT / need a 30% pass rusher / 40% cornerback)
- Cardinals (#7 pick): Currently have a left tackle in Levi Brown, who was lost early in 2012 with a season ending injury. Brown is an average left tackle but an average left tackle is still a good left tackle. They could upgrade at left tackle and shift Brown to right tackle, but current 2nd year starter Bobby Massie played very well and improved down the stretch. (30% chance of drafting a LT / 30% pass rusher / 20% guard / 20% Quarterback)
- Chargers (#11 pick): San Diego cut left tackle Jared Gaither after one terrible season, signed backup left tackle King Dunlap and there is an obvious hole and need (50% chance of drafting a left tackle / 20% Guard / 15% defensive tackle / 15% pass rusher)
- Dolphins (#12): Lost left tackle Jake Long to free agency, but drafted projected replacement Jonathan Martin in 2012. Could trade up to get a left tackle in the draft, but have several other needs. In all likely hood, the top three left tackles should be unavailable at #12(15% chance of drafting a left tackle from trading up / 40% cornerback / 30% pass rusher / 15% right tackle)
For the above 7 teams (baring any other trade, salary cap cuts or trades), based on the estimated team-need (TN) percentages and best player available (BPA), projections may look like:
- Chiefs (BPA): Luke Joeckel, LT Texas A&M
- Jaguars (BPA): Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
- Eagles (TN): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
- Lions (TN): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
- Cardinals (TN): Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
- Chargers (BPA): Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan
- Dolphins (BPA): Lane Johnson, LT, Oklahoma
Full 3 Round MOCK DRAFT (with Tampa’s trade for Revis & Sanchez) 7.0
4/12/13 – by James Fedewa
Every week new rumors float, additional free agents sign and new pre-draft player visits occur (so new mock drafts happen even more). Yes, the NFL draft is in less than 2 weeks away and draftnik’s, super fans and NFL analysts have already started peaking with final draft details, team need preparations and game tape cramming before DRAFT DAY.
Back in Feburary, I anticipated a package-deal trade for one of the best players in the NFL, Darrelle Revis. “Package-deal” meaning both Revis and quarterback Mark Sanchez must be included in the deal. The Jets have a very unique chance to trade a superstar, with one year left under contract (Revis), for a first round draft pick and even unload overpaid/underperforming quarterback Mark Sanchez (http://wp.me/p2pbCG-58 ).
|
2013 NFL Mock Draft |
Scenario (4/13/13) |
|
|
No. |
Team |
|
|
1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M |
|
2 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon |
|
3 |
Oakland Raiders |
Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida |
|
4 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia |
|
5 |
Detroit Lions |
Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama |
|
6 |
Cleveland Browns |
Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah |
|
7 |
Arizona Cardinals |
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU |
|
8 |
Buffalo Bills |
Matt Barkley, QB, USC |
|
9 |
New York Jets |
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia |
|
10 |
Tennessee Titans |
Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU |
|
11 |
San Diego Chargers |
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan |
|
12 |
Miami Dolphins |
Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida Sate |
|
13 |
New York Jets (from Tampa Bay) |
EJ Manual, QB Florida State |
|
14 |
Carolina Panthers |
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee |
|
15 |
New Orleans Saints |
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma |
|
16 |
St. Louis Rams |
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama |
|
17 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State |
|
18 |
Dallas Cowboys |
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas |
|
19 |
New York Giants |
Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina |
|
20 |
Chicago Bears |
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri |
|
21 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama |
|
22 |
St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) |
Matt Elam, SS, Florida |
|
23 |
Minnesota Vikings |
Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame |
|
24 |
Indianapolis Colts |
Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia |
|
25 |
Minnesota Vikings (from Seahawks) |
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington |
|
26 |
Green Bay Packers |
Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia |
|
27 |
Houston Texans |
Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama |
|
28 |
Denver Broncos |
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina |
|
29 |
New England Patriots |
Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State |
|
30 |
Atlanta Falcons |
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA |
|
31 |
San Francisco 49ers |
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame |
|
32 |
Baltimore Ravens |
Eric Reid, FS, LSU |
|
2nd Round |
||
|
Pick (overall) |
Team |
|
|
1 (33) |
Jaguars |
Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse |
|
2 (34) |
San Francisco 49ers (from Chiefs) |
Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International |
|
3 (35) |
Eagles |
Cornellius Carradine, DE/OLB, Florida State |
|
4 (36) |
Lions |
Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State |
|
5 (37) |
Bengals (from Raiders) |
Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State |
|
6 (38) |
Cardinals |
Mike Glennon, QB, NC State |
|
7 |
Browns |
(exercised pick in Supplemental Draft) |
|
8 (39) |
Jets |
Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M |
|
9 (40) |
Titans |
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston |
|
10 (41) |
Bills |
Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU |
|
11 (42) |
Dolphins |
Kyle Long, OT, Oregon |
|
12 (43) |
Buccaneers |
Kawann Short, DT, Purdue |
|
13 (44) |
Panthers |
David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State |
|
14 |
Saints |
(forfeited) |
|
15 (45) |
Chargers |
Sam Montgomery, OLB/DE, LSU |
|
16 (46) |
Rams |
Keenan Allen, WR, CAL |
|
17 (47) |
Cowboys |
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama |
|
18 (48) |
Steelers |
Justin Hunter, WR, Tenn |
|
19 (49) |
Giants |
Margus Hunt, DE, SMU |
|
20 (50) |
Bears |
Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford |
|
21 (51) |
Redskins |
Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State |
|
22 (52) |
Vikings |
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson |
|
23 (53) |
Bengals |
Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin |
|
24 (54) |
Dolphins (from Colts) |
Alex Okafor, 34OLB/DE, Texas |
|
25 (55) |
Packers |
Barrett Jones, C, Alabama |
|
26 (56) |
Seahawks |
Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State |
|
27 (57) |
Texans |
Robert Woods, WR, USC |
|
28 (58) |
Broncos |
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut |
|
29 (59) |
Patriots |
Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers |
|
30 (60) |
Falcons |
B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary |
|
31 (61) |
49ers |
John Jenkins, DT, Georgia |
|
32 (62) |
Ravens |
Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin |
|
3rd Round |
||
|
Pick (overall) |
Team |
|
|
1 (63) |
Chiefs |
Sio Moore, OLB, Connecticut |
|
2 (64) |
Jaguars |
Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse |
|
3 (65) |
Lions |
Corey Lemonier, DE/OLB, Auburn |
|
4 (66) |
Raiders |
Shamarko Thomas, SS, Syracuse |
|
5 (67) |
Eagles |
Bennie Logan, DT, LSU |
|
6 (68) |
Browns |
Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State |
|
7 (69) |
Cardinals |
Philip Thomas, S, Fresno State |
|
8 (70) |
Titans |
Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State |
|
9 (71) |
Bills |
Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech |
|
10 (72) |
Jets |
Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky |
|
11 (73) |
Buccaneers |
Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State |
|
12 (74) |
49ers |
Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana |
|
13 (75) |
Saints |
Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers |
|
14 (76) |
Chargers |
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|
15 (77) |
Dolphins |
Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina |
|
16 (78) |
Rams |
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State |
|
17 (79) |
Steelers |
David Bakhtiari, OT/G, Colorado |
|
18(80) |
Cowboys |
Brian Schwenke, C/OG, Cal |
|
19(81) |
Giants |
Brandon William, NT Missouri Southern State |
|
20(82) |
Dolphins (from Chicago) |
D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina |
|
21(83) |
Vikings |
Montori Hughes, NT, Tennessee-Martin |
|
22(84) |
Bengals |
Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU |
|
23(85) |
Redskins |
Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia |
|
24(86) |
Colts |
Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee |
|
25(87) |
Seattle |
Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M |
|
22(88) |
Packers |
Chris Faulk, OT, LSU |
|
27(89) |
Texans |
Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss |
|
28(90) |
Broncos |
Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M |
|
29(91) |
Patriots |
Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor |
|
30(92) |
Falcons |
Brennan Williams, OT, North Carolina |
|
31(93) |
49ers |
David Quessenberry, G/OT, San Jose State |
|
32(94) |
Ravens |
Alvin Bailey, OT/G, Arkansas |
|
33(95) |
Texans (Comp) |
Malliciah Goodman, DE, Clemson |
|
34(96) |
Chiefs (Comp) |
Bacarri Rambo, S, Georgia |
|
35(97) |
Titans (Comp) |
J.J. Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern |
Chargers O-Line (Plan B: Draft a Guard / Find a Tackle)
By James Fedewa
Tackle or Guard. Tuard or Gackle. Who will San Diego select in the first round?
75% of Chargers fans and Draft Experts have San Diego choosing an offensive tackle or an offensive guard with their first round pick. Obviously, it’s the biggest need in San Diego has to be the offensive line (since releasing Jared Gaither, losing Luis Vasquez and watching Tyronne Green find someone else to let down) . Since money & salary cap are very limited, there is not a lot the Chargers can do with new free agents. So GM Tom Telesco must revamp a bad offensive line and find three new starters and he wants to build through the draft.
Telesco has signed three “under the radar” types of offensive linemen in King Dunlap, Rich Ohrnberger and Chad Rinehart. All three additions seem like “depth” (and better than last season) but maybe one or two can turn into a quality every day starter. Rinehart and Dunlap both have ties with San Diego’s new offensive line coach Joe D’alessandris (“Coach Joe-D”). D’alessandris is an offensive line mastermind specializing in the zone blocking scheme, yet playing within the teams strengths (mixing zone and power blocking). Coach D’ is really going to have to start from scratch in San Diego since the only two starters from last years team are center Nick Hardwick and right tackle Jeremy Clary (both were below average last season, nor experienced in zone blocking). Coach D’s three years prior with the Buffalo Bills produce quality offensive linemen and with later round draft picks. So it’s safe to say San Diego’s biggest free agent offensive lineman (so far) is Coach Joe D’alessandris.
Current NFL draft projections could have the Chargers missing out of the top three left tackle prospects Luke Joeckle, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson. So the most logical thing to do is draft the next best position, a guard: either Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper. Both prospects look super on game tape and both are very unique with great qualities. But drafting either guard still leaves San Diego with a glaring need at left tackle, and the Chargers need a starter. So drafting a guard in the first round, San Diego would start Cooper or Warmack and still have to look for a starting left tackle with their second or third round pick. .
If Chance Warmack is selected in the first round, he’s a left guard. So Chargers fans can nearly guarantee two rookies starting on the left side of the o-line 2013, which is not necessarily desirable.
Now who will that starting left tackle be?
- Left Tackle: King Dunlap (or Terron Armstead, Justin Pugh, Kyle Long, Dallas Thomas, Menelik Watson)
- Left Guard: Chance Warmack, Troutman
- Center: Hardwick, Molk, Baxter
- Right Guard: Rinehart, Ohrnberger
- Right Tackle: Jeremy Clary, Mike Harris
Typically, cohesiveness is the best quality about a starting five offensive line, which takes time, familiarity and practice. Starting two rookies within a starting five is a very large gamble and the odds do not favor rookie duos. Second or third round left tackles usually are very raw, and should not start immediately as rookies. However, even with King Dunlap starting, the offensive line is still an improvement from last year’s M.Harris, T.Green, Hardwick, Rinehart & Clary, especially with the addition of Coach Joe D’alessandris and his blocking scheme.
There are also trade options for a veteran left tackle, but San Diego is very limited within their small salary cap. The left tackle trading block isn’t typically big either. Some names floating around Chargers fans are:
- Chiefs Brandon Albert would cost too much, especially within the division.
- Rams Rodger Saffold is in his final year of his rookie contract so he’s inexpensive (good for the Rams) but he’ll demand a lot more money in 2014 as a left tackle free agent and the Rams will not resign him (since signing Jake Long in free agency).
- J’Marcus Webb has been replaced in Chicago. May be available in trade.
- Doug Free may be on the chopping block in Dallas, and he has left tackle experience.
- Levi Brown is making left tackle money in Arizona this year. If the decide to draft a left tackle in the draft, cutting Brown could save a lot of money for the Cardinals.
- 33 year old Bryant McKinnie just won a Super Bowl in Baltimore and is still could be an inexpensive free agent.
- Demetress Bell is a free agent, with ties with Coach D’. He’s an injury risk, but talented but probably too unreliable.
- Jason Smith may be worth a shot at training camp fodder, as Coach D’ has a great reputation of making linemen look good.
If San Diego does miss out on blue chippers Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson, it’s not the end of the world for San Diego fans. Good coaching, new schemes, and new looks can fix holes.
2013 NFL Mock Draft (2.5 rounds / 78 selections)
By James Fedewa
The 2013 NFL Draft is right around the corner (less than 19 days). Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock and “who” will the Chiefs choose; “why” did they do that, and “they should’ve traded it” whispers and estimates fill the web. Everyone has their favorite picks/players and guesses for who should be the next prospect taken and for what team. Draft experts and analyst skew projections of team needs and scheme fits, but no one really knows what is going to happen on draft day. Evaluating the future is only a guessing probabilities. Unpredictability is the name of the game (as well as new team additions/future superstars) that’s what makes the NFL Draft so intriguing.
Here a version of predicting the future, with the same odd as winning the lottery: My 2013 mock draft. This is my 6th so I’m not going to leave a “note” with the reason why I chose this player with that team. Lets just say it’s an educated guess, followed by TEAM NEED, then Best Player Available.
|
2013 NFL Mock Draft |
Scenario 5 (4/6/13) |
||
|
No. |
Team |
||
|
1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
=== |
Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M |
|
2 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
=== |
Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida |
|
3 |
Oakland Raiders |
=== |
Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon |
|
4 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
=== |
Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama |
|
5 |
Detroit Lions |
=== |
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU |
|
6 |
Cleveland Browns |
=== |
Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah |
|
7 |
Arizona Cardinals |
=== |
Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan |
|
8 |
Buffalo Bills |
=== |
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia |
|
9 |
New York Jets |
=== |
Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU |
|
10 |
Tennessee Titans |
=== |
Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State |
|
11 |
San Diego Chargers |
=== |
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma |
|
12 |
Miami Dolphins |
=== |
Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida Sate |
|
13 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
=== |
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri |
|
14 |
Carolina Panthers |
=== |
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee |
|
15 |
New Orleans Saints |
=== |
Jarvis Jones, DE/OLB, Georgia |
|
16 |
St. Louis Rams |
=== |
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia |
|
17 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
=== |
Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas |
|
18 |
Dallas Cowboys |
=== |
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama |
|
19 |
New York Giants |
=== |
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA |
|
20 |
Chicago Bears |
=== |
Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame |
|
21 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
=== |
Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia |
|
22 |
St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) |
=== |
Johnathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina |
|
23 |
Minnesota Vikings |
=== |
Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame |
|
24 |
Indianapolis Colts |
=== |
Sam Montgomery, OLB/DE, LSU |
|
25 |
Minnesota Vikings (from Seahawks) |
=== |
Keenan Allen, WR, CAL |
|
26 |
Green Bay Packers |
=== |
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington |
|
27 |
Houston Texans |
=== |
Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama |
|
28 |
Denver Broncos |
=== |
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina |
|
29 |
New England Patriots |
=== |
Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State |
|
30 |
Atlanta Falcons |
=== |
Cornellius Carradine, DE/OLB, Florida State |
|
31 |
San Francisco 49ers |
=== |
Eric Reid, FS, LSU |
|
32 |
Baltimore Ravens |
=== |
Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State |
|
2nd Round |
|
||
|
Pick (overall) |
Team |
|
|
|
1 (33) |
Jaguars |
=== |
Matt Barkley, QB, USC |
|
2 (34) |
San Francisco 49ers (from Chiefs) |
=== |
Margus Hunt, DE, SMU |
|
3 (35) |
Eagles |
=== |
EJ Manual, QB Florida State |
|
4 (36) |
Lions |
=== |
D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama |
|
5 (37) |
Bengals (from Raiders) |
=== |
Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International |
|
6 (38) |
Cardinals |
=== |
Mike Glennon, QB, NC State |
|
7 |
Browns |
=== |
(exercised pick in Supplemental Draft) |
|
8 (39) |
Jets |
=== |
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston |
|
9 (40) |
Titans |
=== |
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut |
|
10 (41) |
Bills |
=== |
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson |
|
11 (42) |
Dolphins |
=== |
Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford |
|
12 (43) |
Buccaneers |
=== |
Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M |
|
13 (44) |
Panthers |
=== |
Kyle Long, OT, Oregon |
|
14 |
Saints |
=== |
(forfeited) |
|
15 (45) |
Chargers |
=== |
Kawann Short, DT, Purdue |
|
16 (46) |
Rams |
=== |
Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama |
|
17 (47) |
Cowboys |
=== |
Matt Elam, SS, Florida |
|
18 (48) |
Steelers |
=== |
Alex Okafor, 34OLB/DE, Texas |
|
19 (49) |
Giants |
=== |
Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State |
|
20 (50) |
Bears |
=== |
Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU |
|
21 (51) |
Redskins |
=== |
Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State |
|
22 (52) |
Vikings |
=== |
Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State |
|
23 (53) |
Bengals |
=== |
Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin |
|
24 (54) |
Dolphins (from Colts) |
=== |
Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State |
|
25 (55) |
Packers |
=== |
Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina |
|
26 (56) |
Seahawks |
=== |
Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers |
|
27 (57) |
Texans |
=== |
Justin Hunter, WR, Tenn |
|
28 (58) |
Broncos |
=== |
Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State |
|
29 (59) |
Patriots |
=== |
Robert Woods, WR, USC |
|
30 (60) |
Falcons |
=== |
B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary |
|
31 (61) |
49ers |
=== |
John Jenkins, DT, Georgia |
|
32 (62) |
Ravens |
=== |
Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin |
|
3rd Round |
|||
|
Pick (overall) |
Team |
|
|
|
1 (63) |
Chiefs |
=== |
Barrett Jones, C, Alabama |
|
2 (64) |
Jaguars |
=== |
David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State |
|
3 (65) |
Lions |
=== |
Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers |
|
4 (66) |
Raiders |
=== |
Brandon William, NT Missouri Southern State |
|
5 (67) |
Eagles |
=== |
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
|
6 (68) |
Browns |
=== |
Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana |
|
7 (69) |
Cardinals |
=== |
Philip Thomas, S, Fresno State |
|
8 (70) |
Titans |
=== |
Brian Schwenke, C/OG, Cal |
|
9 (71) |
Bills |
=== |
Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse |
|
10 (72) |
Jets |
=== |
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State |
|
11 (73) |
Buccaneers |
=== |
Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse |
|
12 (74) |
49ers |
=== |
Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State |
|
13 (75) |
Saints |
=== |
Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee |
|
14 (76) |
Chargers |
=== |
Corey Lemonier, DE/OLB, Auburn |
|
15 (77) |
Dolphins |
=== |
Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M |
|
16 (78) |
Rams |
=== |
Shamarko Thomas, SS, Syracuse |
*Note: I’m a San Diego Chargers fan, so San Diego selects: #1.) Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma #2.) Kawann Short, DT Purdue. #3.) Corey Lemonier, DE/OLB, Auburn
Chargers Trade-Down Scenarios – 2013 NFL Draft
By JAMES FEDEWA
With the NFL Draft approaching in less than three weeks, draft enthusiasts, draftniks and super-fans are guessing what their team necessities are and who they should draft. The unpredictability of the NFL Draft is probably the most intriguing aspect of the annual draft craze, with new team additions and improvements that keep us all guessing “who’s going where and in what round.” Draft Value adds to the craze too, as potential first round picks, which slid and were drafted in the second, or third…
Some NFL Teams draft out of “need” and some draft “Best Player Available” (BPA), or a little of both. Based on the San Diego Chargers current roster and salary cap situation & limitations, Chargers fans can pretty much guess correctly what San Diego will do with their first pick (#11 overall). They will draft out of NEED as San Diego has a glaring need at left tackle, which is the most likely choice with their first pick. Three left tackles are considered the top tier bunch: Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) and Lane Johnson (Oklahoma). San Diego needs one of them and one should be available with San Diego’s #11 overall pick.
However, the NFL Draft is extremely unpredictable. If all three top rated left tackle prospects are all drafted before San Diego’s pick, what position will San Diego draft in the first round? It is rare to see 3 offensive linemen to go in the top ten, but it could happen.
Offensive Guards Chance Warmack (Alabama) and Johnathan Cooper (North Carolina) are just as highly rated as the top three left tackle prospects, but guard is not an immediate need for San Diego, like left tackle is, nor is a guard a sexy pick at #11. First round guards are rare, as you can find quality guards in later rounds of the draft, but Warmack and Cooper are very special and are two of the highest rated guards coming out of college, ever. Any first rounder drafted to San Diego’s offensive line would help San Diego immensely, so any o-lineman should be the choice.
Again, the NFL Draft is very unpredictable. Many scenarios can happen with the first ten picks, before San Diego’s #11 selection. If no players that San Diego want with their pick, then the Chargers can trade-down. They could also trade up to secure one of the left tackles, but that could cost San Diego additional draft picks to give away in trade. San Diego can also stand pat and take what they can get, regardless of the position (which what they will probably do).
But since we are talking about unpredictability here, why don’t we talk about “TRADE DOWN” scenarios? If GM Tom Telesco wants to get more draft picks, or doesn’t like what he sees at #11, who could San Diego trade down with?
The first part of the 2013 NFL Draft is controlled by four teams, since these teams have multiple/extra draft picks in the first two rounds: 49ers, Vikings, Bengals & Rams
The San Francisco 49ers have 15 draft picks (including one in the first round and two in the second round). They have the most control of this draft, as they do not need 15 rookies on their 2013 team. So they have the ability to trade up (or down) and target the players they want. There’s no hiding that they do like Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia, but the 49ers first round pick is at #31 and Austin is projected to go well before that. Based on the “Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Trade Value Chart” (a point value system, based on each NFL draft pick position), most trades should equal close to each other’s total. For example, if San Diego picks at #11 that draft pick is worth 1250 points, and whichever team would like to trade that draft pick, for their draft picks, the additional draft picks should sum should total 1250. So, if San Francisco wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick (#11 overall), it would cost San Francisco three draft picks (#31, #34 & #96, based on the total points each draft pick is valued).
The Minnesota Vikings have a need at wide receiver too, and have also been enamored with Tevon Austin to replace recently traded Percy Harvin. If Minnesota wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick (#11), it would cost them: #23, #25 & #101.
The Cincinnati Bengals also have a need for a playmaker wide receiver (as well as a right tackle). If Cincinnati wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick, and swap second round draft picks (SD’s #11 & 45), it would cost them: #21, #37 & #54 (-10 points in SD’s favor). That’s two picks for three picks…
The St. Louis Ram also have a need for a wide receiver, and have been linked to Tevon Austin as well. If St. Louis wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft picks (#11), it would cost them: #16, #80 & #112 (-10 in SD’s favor)
Acquiring additional draft picks in the NFL Draft is an art form. Good trade (downs) look like magic (on paper). The St. Louis Rams did a great job trading down in last years draft (same with the Chargers in 2004). But annual draft results cannot be measured for several years.
General Managers know their teams holes and can often target the guys they want, a round earlier than projected in drafts. Trading down can backfire, and trading out of the top half of the first round has even more odds against you (see Chargers 2003 draft trade down – S.Davis/T.Keil vs. T.Polamalu = moving down 14 spots for two draft picks). As much as any GM would like to move back 10 spots, and get an additional draft pick (within the top 64) picks seems great, but the odds are not in their favor. The number #11 draft pick is a prize and should not be gambled with. But big bets have big rewards…
If San Diego cannot land a top tier first round offensive lineman like (Joeckel, Fisher, Lane Johnson, Warmack or Cooper) then San Diego can go a numerous amount of directions. And we won’t find out until Thursday night, April 25th.
By JAMES FEDEWA www.nationalfanatic.wordpress.com


